Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin
Issued 07 July
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. The Bureau's ENSO outlook has shifted to La Niña WATCH due to continuous cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean and most models anticipate this cooling will be close to the threshold for La Niña by early spring (September-October).
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was suppressed and generally displaced northward. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was displaced south of its normal position towards Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Cook Islands and French Polynesia.
Sea level in June was higher than normal for most of countries in the region with anomalies (2-3cm) situated around eastern Palau, New Guinea Islands, Solomon Islands, southern Tuvalu and Samoa. Parts of southern PNG, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Kiribati experienced below normal conditions.
The Coral Bleaching Alert for early July shows a region of Alert Level 1 spanning northern PNG and southern FSM. Areas of Warning exist around Palau, southern FSM and New Guinea Islands. The remainder of south west Pacific Island countries are on Watch and no stress. The four weeks Coral Bleaching Outlook till 26 July shows the region of Alert Level 1 to persist over south Palau, FSM, northern PNG and New Guinea Islands. The remainder of the south west Pacific countries are on warning, Watch or no stress.
For July to September, most models agree on below normal rainfall for Nauru, Kiribati and northern Tuvalu and above normal rainfall for the PNG Highlands, western and southern region of PNG, Solomon Islands, central and northern Vanuatu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna and Samoa. The models disagree elsewhere. Warmer than average maximum and minimum temperature are favoured for most countries.