Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 27 February 2026

• The 2025-2026 La Niña continues to weaken.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently indiscernible.
• In January, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and shifted north of its normal position over the northern Pacific. The South Pacific Convergence zone was active PNG to Cook Islands.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for January 2025 were near-normal to below-normal in the central and eastern Pacific, while above-normal in the western Pacific.
• The Coral bleaching Alert up to February 07 indicates a few patches of 'Alert Level 2' over southern Tonga.
• For February to April 2026, the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely over Palau, CNMI, Guam, FSM, central and southern RMI, and a band stretching southeastwards over PNG, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, eastern Fiji, and southern Tonga. Below normal rainfall is likely or very likely in a band stretching southeastwards from Kiribati (Phoenix, and Line Islands), Tokelau, northern American Samoa, northern Cook Island., and northern French Polynesia.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows increased risks for Coral Sea region, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu for the 05 to 18 March.