Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Summary

Issued 11 June 2021

  • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate model outlooks indicate this neutral phase will last at least until September.
  • A moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse weakened prior moving into western Pacific.
  • The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and shifted north, while the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was shifted to the southwest.
  • The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in May shows SSTs were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Coral bleaching status is 'no stress' or 'watch' for almost all countries with patches of warning north of PNG.
  • A notable sea level anomalies of +250mm-300mm observed in the Solomon Islands.
  • For June to August 2021, the dynamical models (as well as SCOPIC) agree on above normal rainfall for the Highlands and, Southern regions of PNG, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue and southern Cook Islands. The models also agree on below normal rainfall for Rotuma, Kiribati (in southern hemisphere), Tuvalu, northern Cook Islands, the northern half of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Island.