Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

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The El Niño is underway.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has weakened with most models forecast it to redevelop over the Maritime Continent and propagate into the Western Pacific over the coming week.
In June, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and shifted south of its climatological position in the western Pacific. The South Pacific Convergence zone (SPCZ) was shifted north of its climatological position over the western Pacific.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for June were mostly near-normal to above-normal in most countries in the Pacific.
The Coral bleaching Alert up to July 17 indicates areas of 'Alert Level 2' and 'Alert Level 1' observed over Kiribati, and northern CNMI.
For July to September 2026, the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely over Guam, southern CNMI, northern FSM, RMI, Nauru, Kiribati (Gilbert, Phoenix, and northern Line Is.,), northern Tuvalu, northern Tokelau, southeast French Polynesia and Pitcairn Islands. Below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for most of Palau, PNG, Kiribati (southern Line Is.), Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, southern Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, southern Tokelau, most of Cook Is., and northern French Polynesia. i
The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows increased risks in the north-western Pacific near Palau, FSM, Guam, CNMI, and RMI for the week of 26 July - 08 August 2026.