Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin
Issued 16 April 2024
El Niño continues and is near its end. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to return to ENSO-neutral later in autumn 2024.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has moved into the Maritime Continent. A majority of climate models indicate this pulse will continue eastwards over the Maritime Continent in the coming week.
A strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was shifted southwest over PNG Islands, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and Niue.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for March 2024 were warmer than average across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The Coral bleaching Outlook to 28 April shows 'Alert Level 2' over parts of southeastern Australia, eastern PNG, eastern Solomon Islands, northern Fiji, southern Tuvalu, Kiribati (southern Phoenix and Line Islands), northern Tonga, northern Niue, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, and northern and central Cook Islands.
For April to June 2024, the models agree on below normal rainfall being likely or very likely for Palau's main Islands, Guam, CNMI, northern FSM, northern RMI, New Caledonia, southern Vanuatu, Niue, southern Cook Islands, and northeast French Polynesia. In addition, there's model agreement on above normal rainfall being likely or very likely in near-equatorial regions from PNG eastward across the northern Solomon Islands, Kiribati (mainly southern Phoenix), Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, central French Polynesia and Pitcairn Islands.
The ACCESS-S weekly tropical cyclone outlook shows significantly increased risk over northern Australia and southern PNG for the week from 17 to 23 April, and s slightly increased risk for the Philippines and Palau region for the week from 24 to 30 April.