Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 23 December 2024

• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the neutral range.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located over the eastern Maritime Continent, with majority of climate models indicating it will maintain its slow eastward movement into the Western Pacific in the coming fortnight.
• In November, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and north of the equator, and a well-defined South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended east-southeast from PNG to northern Cook Islands in the southern hemisphere.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for November 2024 were warmer than average in the western Pacific while cooler than average waters in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.
• The Coral bleaching Outlook to 22 November shows 'Alert Level 2' over central and eastern FSM, southern RMI and northern PNG.
• For December to February 2025 the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for Palau, most of FSM, and central RMI in the northern hemisphere. Another band stretches from southern PNG, southern Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga and Niue. The models agree that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for northern PNG, southeast FSM, Nauru, and Kiribati extending to Tuvalu, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands, northern French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Island.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows reduced risk over northern and southern Pacific for the week from 29 December to 04 January. There is reduced risk from 05 to 11 January in both hemisphere.