Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 17 March 2025

• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral.
• A moderate pulse of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located close to the tropical African longitudes.
• In February, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and north of the equator over Palau, central FSM, and central RMI north of the equator, and a well-defined SPCZ extending east-southeast from Coral Sea region, southeastern PNG to western Cook Islands in the southern hemisphere.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for February 2025 were warmer than average in the western Pacific while cooler than average waters in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.
• The Coral bleaching Outlook to 23 March shows 'Alert Level 2' over most of PNG, western and southern Solomon Islands, northwest Vanuatu, and southern French Polynesia.
• For March to May 2025, the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for Palau, most of FSM, Guam, CNMI, most of RMI in the northern hemisphere. Another band stretches from southeastern PNG, southern Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, Niue, southern Cook Islands, and southern French Polynesia. The models agree that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for northern PNG, northern Solomon Islands, southern FSM, Nauru, Kiribati, and extending to northern Tuvalu.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows some risk for northern Australia from 16 to 22 February. Normal to Reduced risk over northern Pacific for the same period.