Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 13 March 2026

• The 2025-2026 La Niña is close to its end.
• A weak to moderate pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Maritime Continent.
• In February, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence zone were active with the SPCZ shifted south of its normal position over Vanuatu to Fiji.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for February 2026 were generally near-normal to above-normal in most countries in the Pacific.
• The Coral bleaching Alert up to March 05 indicates 'Alert Level 2' observed over the southern Tonga, Fiji, PNG, New Caledonia, Cook Islands and French Polynesia.
• For March to May 2026, the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely over Palau, CNMI, Guam, most of FSM, RMI, southeast PNG, southern Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and Niue. Below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for eastern PNG, Nauru, Kiribati (Gilbert, Phoenix, and northern Line Is.), western and northern Solomon Is., Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, most of Cook Is., most of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Islands.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows increased risks for Palau, FSM, and Guam for the 24 to 30 March.