Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 12 September 2023

• The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to strengthen and move over the eastern Indian Ocean or western Maritime Continent (MC) in the coming week.
• The ITCZ was active and displaced south from its normal position in August 2023.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) for August 2023 were warmer than average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• The Coral bleaching Outlook to 24 September shows patches of area of 'Alert Level 1 and 2' over Kiribati (central Gilbert, northern Phoenix and northern Line Islands).
• For September-November 2023, the models agree on above normal rainfall being likely or very likely from FSM, southern and central RMI, much of the PNG Islands, Solomon Islands, Nauru, Tuvalu, and Kiribati (Gilbert, Phoenix and Line Islands). Below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for CNMI, Guam, eastern RMI, most of PNG, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, American Samoa, central and northern Cook Island, French Polynesia and Pitcairn Islands.
• The ACCESS-S weekly tropical cyclone outlook shows a significantly increased risk in the northwest Pacific between 10 September and 23 September around, Palau, FSM, Guam, CNMI, Philippines, China and Japan.