Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 10 June 2022

• The 2021-2022 La Niña event is slowly weakening in the tropical Pacific. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate a return to neutral ENSO during the southern hemisphere winter (June-August).
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. All climate model outlooks surveyed suggest a negative IOD is likely to form in the coming months.
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently at moderate strength over the western hemisphere, and is expected to strengthen in the coming weeks.
• The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and shifted north over the western equatorial Pacific, while the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was not active.
• The SSTs for May 2022 show cool SST anomalies across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific and along the coastline of South America, and warm SST anomalies over parts of the Maritime Continent.
• Coral bleaching status for 06th June 2022 has warning 'Alert Level 2' and 'Alert Level 1' for parts of northern PNG mainland, with 'Warning' for CNMI while 'Watch or 'No Stress for the rest of COSPPac partner countries.
• For June-August 2022, the dynamical models (including SCOPIC) agree on above normal rainfall for southern RMI, most of PNG mainland, southern Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, and southern Cook Islands. The models also agree on below normal rainfall is very likely for Palau, FSM, PNG Islands, northern Solomon Islands, Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, northern French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecast from the ACCESS-S model shows reduced risk in the weeks beginning 08 June and ending 14 June 2022 for northwest Pacific. There is increased risk for northern Philippines and Japan for the week 15 to 21 June 2022.