Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 15 May 2025

• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently strengthened near Africa.
• In April, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located mainly in the western Pacific along the equator around southern FSM. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and displaced south of PNG and stretching southeastwards over Pitcairn Islands.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for April 2025 were average or near normal in waters eastwards of 150 °E along the tropical equatorial Pacific.
• The Coral bleaching Outlook to 26 May shows 'Alert Level 2' over PNG, and western Solomon Islands.
• For May to July 2025 the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for Palau, southwest FSM, and northern CNMI in the northern hemisphere. Another band stretches from southeastern PNG, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, southern American Samoa, southern Cook Islands, and central French Polynesia. The models agree that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for northern FSM, RMI, and northeast French Polynesia.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows some risks for Palau, and eastern FSM from 19 to 25 May.