Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Issued 12 May 2026

• The 2025-26 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.
• The MJO is currently located in the Indian Ocean region, but the signal has been weakening. Most models forecast the MJO to weaken further over the coming days.
• In April, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and shift north of its climatological position in the western and central Pacific. The South Pacific Convergence zone were active and shifted south of its normal position over eastern PNG, to southern Fiji.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for April 2026 were generally near-normal to above-normal in most countries in the Pacific.
• The Coral bleaching Alert up to April 30 indicates areas of 'Alert Level 1' observed over Nauru, part of Kiribati (western part of Gilbert Islands), with patches over FSM, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Cook Islands and American Samoa.
• For May to July 2026, the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely over southern CNMI, Guam, northern FSM, RMI, Nauru, and Kiribati (Gilbert, northern Phoenix, and northern Line Is.,), southern French Polynesi and Pitcairn Islands. Below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for PNG, Kiribati (southern Phoenix, and southern Line Is.), western Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, northern Cook Is., northern French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Islands.
• The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows increased risks in the north-western Pacific near Palau, western FSM, Guam and CMNI for the week of 11-17 May 2026.