Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Select Bulletin

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently indiscernible.
In May, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located mainly in the western Pacific along the equator around southern FSM, with another portion stretched from eastern Gilbert to northern Kiribati. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and displaced south of PNG and stretched southeastwards to southern French Polynesia.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for May 2025 were average or near normal in waters eastwards of 150 °E along the tropical equatorial Pacific.
The Coral bleaching Outlook to 07 July shows 'Alert Level 2' over PNG..
For June to August 2025, the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for northern CNMI, and southern RMI in the northern Pacific. Above normal rainfall is also likely or very likely in a band stretching from Palau, PNG, southern Solomon Islands, northern Vanuatu, southern Fiji, southern Tonga, and central French Polynesia. Below normal rainfall is likely or very likely in a band stretching eastwards from northern FSM to central RMI in the northern Pacific, and northern French Polynesia in the southern Pacific.
The weekly tropical cyclone forecasts from the ACCESS-S model shows some risks for Philippines and south China sea region for the 25 June to 1 July. There are some risks also for Palau, Guam and northern from 2 to 8 July.