Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

Select Bulletin

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.
Currently in the Maritime Continent region, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to strengthen slightly as the MJO propagates eastward in the coming week.
In August, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was northwards east of the Date Line, and a well-defined South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended east-southeast from PNG to the northern Cook Islands in the southern hemisphere.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for August 2024 were above average across much of the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
The Coral bleaching Outlook to 29 September shows 'Alert Level 2' over eastern FSM, and southern RMI.
For September to November 2024 the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for Palau, western to central FSM, central RMI, most of the PNG mainland, the north of both Samoa and American Samoa, and the north-central Cook Islands. In addition, the models agree that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southeastern FSM, far southern RMI, Nauru, Kiribati, northern Tuvalu, northern Tokelau, northern French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Islands.
The ACCESS-S weekly tropical cyclone outlook shows significantly increased risk over Philippines, Japan, and eastern Asia for the week from 15 to 21 September. There is also slight to modertae risk over the same region from 22 to 28 September.