Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPac) Bulletin

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weak to moderate in strength in the eastern Indian Ocean.
In June, the Intertropcial Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was just north of the equator, and a well defined South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) extended east-southeast from PNG to the northern Cook Islands in the southern hemisphere.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for June 2024 were warmer than average across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The Coral bleaching Outlook to 21 July shows 'Alert Level 2' over most parts of Palau, southwest and southeast FSM, and northern PNG mainland and Islands.
For July to September 2024 the models agree that above normal rainfall is likely or very likely for southern Palau, central RMI, most of PNG north of Milne Bay, most of Solomon Islands, northern Fiji, central and southern Tuvalu, Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, and northwest French Polynesia. In addition, the models agree that below normal rainfall is likely or very likely for Guam, CNMI, Nauru, Kiribati (central Gilbert, patches of Phoenix, and northern Line Is.), southeast French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Islands.
The ACCESS-S weekly tropical cyclone outlook shows significantly increased risk over Palau, FSM, Guam, CNMI, Philippines and Japan for the week from 15 to 21 July, and an elevated risk over the Philippines, Guam and CNMI in the following week from 22 to 28 July.