Summary

Issued 09 April 2021

• La Niña 2020-21 fades as El Niño Southern Oscillation returns to neutral.
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is moderately strong and recently moved into western Maritime Continent longitudes, to the north of Australia. Climate models indicate it will maintain or increase strength in the coming week as it tracks eastwards across the Australian region.
• The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active along it's normal position. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was active and shifted to the southwest of normal.
• Satellite imagery showed active convection over the Maritime Continent, northern Australia, and the southwestward-shifted SPCZ.
• Coral bleaching was on Alert Level 1 and 2 just north and east of PNG and southern Cook Islands.
• For April to June 2021, the dynamical models (as well as SCOPIC) agree on above normal rainfall for Palau, FSM, Marshall Islands, southern and Momase Regions of PNG, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, southern Cook Islands and southern French Polynesia. The models also agree on below normal rainfall for Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, northern Cook Islands and central and northern French Polynesia.